ChamberFX Weekly Brief
Keep up-to-date on foreign exchange developments and news with our brand new ChamberFX weekly briefs. These valuable weekly insights are provided by Andy Dobson and Damon Ellam, International Payments UK, MoneyCorp. Andy and Damon are our regional representatives and will be providing useful monthly FX forecasts to help chamber members with their currency strategies.
July 2024 Forecast by Damon Ellam
"Welcome to my monthly newsletter for July – an election special!
First off, I have unpacked my thoughts below on the upcoming UK general election, the probable outcomes, and the potential FX market reaction in each scenario.
Secondly, as usual, I have flagged the other potential market moving risk event calendar for the rest of the month. Notably, early in the month, the snap French elections are coming up starting with the first round on Sunday 30th June and the second, and final, round on Sunday 7th July. These elections have already devalued the EUR quite significantly, causing a drop in EUR/USD and highs on GBP/EUR, so there is further risk of further volatility going in to the next two weekends.
Lastly, sticking to the election theme: following the US presidential debate last night, Donald Trump now has around double the likelihood of being the next President of the United States than Joe Biden, according to bookmakers. President Biden had a very shaky performance in the debate and, if he is still the Democratic candidate come November, now looks to have a 65-70% probability of losing to Trump versus a 30-35% of winning another term.
As always, please do reach out to me if I can help further when planning how to manage your FX risk around the market risk events I have highlighted.
Have a great month!
All the best,
Damon"
Weekly FX Briefs
Contact
For further information and advice on Hull & Humber's ChamberFX, or for assistance with your currency strategy, please click here or contact Lorraine Holt at l.holt@hull-humber-chamber.co.uk or call 01482 324976.
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